SurveyUSA (8/10-12, likely voters):
Tom Perriello (D): 30
Virgil Goode (R-inc): 64
(MoE: ±3.9%)
Those are some ugly numbers – very much reminiscent of the 64-36 drubbing that Goode delivered to Democrat Al Weed in 2004 (Weed closed the gap to 59-40 two years later before throwing in the towel). Having not spent much in the way of advertising yet, I’d expect Perriello’s name recognition to be quite weak. He should be able to close the gap some once he spends his considerable resources on the race, but this looks to be an extremely tough hill to climb.
SSP currently rates this race as Likely Republican.
(H/T: ChadInFL)
Either this district is beyond redemption or these numbers should move a lot. Goode is currently getting:
32% of liberals
35% of blacks
50% of pro-choice
69% of independents
so…un-saveable or what?
Whether or not this is accurate, that poll is likely to destroy any establishment belief in the viability of his campaign, which means he won’t get independent DCCC expenditures. And whilst he might gain a bit from Virginia being ground central for Obama, McCain will put a lot of effort in there too so he can’t sneak up on the outside either.
I think not SurveyUSA. Why is this polling firm, which has an otherwise good reputation, so horrible at polling minority support for candidates? They had HRC getting 83% of Hispanics in the Texas primary and last week released a poll where McCain got about 25% of blacks in Missouri? He’ll be lucky to get 5% this year.
This poll clearly tests name ID and name ID only. Only 5% undecideds at this point? No way. SurveyUSA pushes respondents to make a call and that’ll always go towards the incumbent. That’s just one of a couple things that don’t smell right here…
That is so nice.
At this stage in the 2006 race this is where SUSA had the VA-05 race:
http://www.surveyusa.com/clien…
7/26/06 poll
Goode (R) 59%
Weed (D) 35%
Our candidate (Weed) improved very little between that poll and the 2006 election.
Gunman kills Arkansas Democratic Party chairman
My thoughts and Sympathies go out to the Family of Bill Gwatney. May he rest in Peace
http://ap.google.com/article/A…
Some folks need to dial back their expectations of how many seats are truly competitive and avoid head-explosions when the DCCC pull the plug on some of these red-to-blue races.
MISSOURI | District 9: Likely Republican to Lean Republican
ALABAMA | District 2: Lean Republican to Toss Up
Both moves make sense to me.